The Rollercoaster Ride Continues:
As I have stated in the past, HOLD ON TIGHT. Last week brought volatility from the Super Committee flop and the European Debt Crisis. The major averages fell over the holiday week by 4.7 to 5.0%. Most of this was stemmed from the uncertainty that Europe faces and how they will handle this challenge to restructure debt and possible default or the breaking up of the Euro itself. The failure of the Super Committee was not as much of a strain as many investors expected, due to the fact that the markets didn’t have much faith from the beginning. The deadline was an empty threat with a fallback option to in January 2013. Expect much more chatter, deliberations, and finger pointing as we move into the 2012 elections with no real progress on tax policy or spending cuts.
All that being said, we did get some more encouraging numbers from our economic data along with strong “Black Friday / Cyber Monday “figures. We expect that the fourth quarter GDP will come in somewhere around 3% based on improved profits, slightly improving labor market, and low inventory levels.
As I write this today the 30th, we are getting a rally from the markets with good news on a coordination of major central banks to help ease some of the strain on Europe’s crisis and make lending a bit more fluid.